000 AXNT20 KNHC 280523 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W WITH THE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO MISSISSIPPI THEN NE ACROSS N TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY NW TO W UPPER FLOW. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ACROSS THE GULF CENTERED FROM OVER TEXAS NEAR 29N96W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH...SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS JET...EXTENDS FROM 24N87W TO OVER S FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 87W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF 26N E OF 87W. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N87W. CARIBBEAN... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N FROM 78W-84W...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC... MID/UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N72W TO 31N76W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND THEN ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N67W N TO BEYOND 32N60W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OVER S FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N67W TO THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N73W. BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N70W TO 30N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 20N-28N E OF 70W TO COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N46W COVERING THE AREA TO 30N FROM 40W-60W. WESTERLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N21W SW TO 23N70W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE