000 AXNT20 KNHC 270005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W INTO NE BRAZIL. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150NM S AND 90NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 11W-18W...AND WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 26/2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N90W 23N96W. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS AN ATLC SFC RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUST THROUGH. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS S OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN THE COAST OF W FLORIDA TO 86W...WHICH SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH FLORIDA. OVERALL ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WHICH IS ADVECTING BANDS OF UPPER MOISTURE EWD ACROSS THE AREA. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE N GULF DURING TUE THEN PUSH NE OF THE AREA DURING WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH OFF TEXAS BY THU AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL THEREBY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM W TO E WED INTO THU...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEAD MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 82W AND CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A BIT LIGHTER SE WINDS ARE FELT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAKNESS IN THE GRADIENT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE GULF. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED SWIRL OF LOW/MID CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BRISK EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT AND OCCASIONALLY NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT. SE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PART AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA JUST OFFSHORE FLORIDA. THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N AND W OF 60W. FRONT WILL MOVE TO PSN FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE SE DISSIPATING OVER THE SE WATERS THU. A 1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N58W THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N34W TO 23N47W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 22N68W AS A TROUGH. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LOW NOW NE OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ONLY A FRAGMENT OF THE TROUGHING NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N. E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE 1031 MB SFC HIGH IS JUST OFFSHORE SW PORTUGAL AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S AND E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. $$ MCW