000 AXNT20 KNHC 261733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-19W...AND FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 35W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 26/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH A 1010 MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 22N95W. A SFC TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY E OF 86W AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA THE RISK OF STRONG TSTMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUE. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SE ALABAMA BUT IS STILL NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF TODAY. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE N GULF WATERS AND THE SE US. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF BY THE COMPUTER MODELS ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA CONTINUES TO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SWIRL OF LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES ARE ALSO ADVECTING SOME LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA HAS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE E-CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 40W N OF 26N. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN 26N AND 30N. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA ENTERING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH N FLORIDA. A 1024 MB HIGH IS S OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING W TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W THEN EXTENDS SW TO 22N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AND BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W. VIS SAT IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THIS IS THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS. A 1034 MB HIGH SITUATED W OF PORTUGAL EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALSO PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE SWD. $$ GR