000
AXNT20 KNHC 261129
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N23W 3N36W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM 
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND S 
OF 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 26/0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF FROM 
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N83W SW TO 28N85W BECOMING 
STATIONARY ALONG 25N93W TO A DEVELOPING 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA 
25N-28N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE US DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF AND AN UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ARE COMBINING 
TO GIVE THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE AND 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WED. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS 
OVER THE NW GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH JUST INLAND OVER S ALABAMA 
BUT IS STILL NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF TODAY. 
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL 
AS OVER THE FAR S GULF. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS 
CLEAR. 

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA 
COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN FROM ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY 
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE 
THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
AREA...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 

ATLANTIC...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF US COAST INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 
28N W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH 
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AT 26/0900 UTC. MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRECEDING THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA 
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO 
BEYOND 32N70W. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH A NARROW AXIS 
EXTENDING N FROM 28N65W TO BEYOND 32N64W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS S OF 
BERMUDA NEAR 27N63W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING W TO OVER THE 
BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 
26N FROM 30W-50W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 
21N55W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
20N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF LINE FROM 30N36W TO BEYOND 32N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB WELL N OF THE REGION COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 15N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. THIS RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BROAD BUT 
WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. 

$$
WALLACE