000 AXNT20 KNHC 251744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W EQ30W 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180-200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-30W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS NEAR 2S24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS CLIPPING THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AT 15Z...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS SE LOUISIANA EXTENDING SW TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A 1008 MB SFC LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 20N95W. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A ROPE CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND A TINY SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS RELATED TO THE SFC LOW THAT IS MOVING SE AROUND 15 KT. BAND OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE US. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED OVER SE ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPORTS THIS STORM SYSTEM. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC INTO N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE N GULF WATERS BY STRONG WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS DRY. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE EXTREME E GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...FLORIDA AND THE E GULF GIVING THE AREA A MODERATE SE WIND FLOW. NLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE FOUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. SIMILAR PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE SEEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA MOVING UNDER THE SE WIND FLOW. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC. A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS SW TO 23N58W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUING ALONG 21N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO REMAINS WITHIN AROUND 180 NM TO THE SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE THE TAIL END MOVES NWD. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N24W DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE THAT IS ALSO GENERATING NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE EQUATOR. $$ GR