000
AXNT20 KNHC 251125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N19W 1N25W 1N43W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STORM SYSTEM IS CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARD THE TEXAS 
COAST THEN S INTO MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO AT 25/0900 UTC. THE 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY. BAND OF SHOWERS/ 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO INTO THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY TO 
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR 
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING 
N OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS FAR E AS TENNESSEE INTO 
THE NW GULF N OF 28N AND AS FAR S AS S TEXAS. THE UPPER DYNAMICS 
ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH 
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE GULF FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD 
AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC 
COVERING THE GULF E OF 87W. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST COVERS FLORIDA 
MAINTAINING THE DRY AIR AND GIVING THE FRONT LITTLE MOISTURE TO 
WORK WITH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS DRY AND CLOUDS 
FREE.   

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA N ACROSS 
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE 
REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW/MID 
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE.  

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W 
OF 68W CLEARING THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE 
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF 
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE S OVER THE W 
ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LARGE UPPER 
LOW REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW TO THE N 
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE E 
EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 16N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB W OF THE 
MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N23W COVERING THE AREA N OF 
20N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS 
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 23N WITH A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 19N30W SW TO 11N38W AND ITS OWN PATCH OF 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE AXIS. 

$$
WALLACE