000
AXNT20 KNHC 250525
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 29W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE GULF 
REGION WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS 
COAST AT 25/0300 UTC. A SECOND COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL INLAND 
OVER OKLAHOMA AND N TEXAS. A NARROW BUT STRONG BAND OF 
THUNDERSTORMS IS PRECEDING THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
N/CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA INTO 
THE GULF NEAR 30N92W TO 28N94W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS 
SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MISSOURI WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH AS FAR S AS CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM AT THIS 
TIME...THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM 
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE 
EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA 
TO OVER THE SE US JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COVERS THE FAR E 
GULF MAINTAINING THE DRY AIR AND GIVING THE FRONT LITTLE 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS ONLY THE THIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM.  

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA N ACROSS CUBA 
INTO THE GULF AND W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY 
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE 
THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANT 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...DOES EXTEND OVER 
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. 

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER 
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W CLEARING THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 1025 MB HIGH ALONG 
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE S OVER THE W 
ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LARGE UPPER 
LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW TO THE N 
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE E 
EXTENDS FROM 27N49W TO 20N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH JUST S 
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N18W AND A 1030 MB HIGH TO THE W 
NEAR 30N24W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC 
FRONT. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO 
THE SOUTH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 23N WITH A 
CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N30W SSW TO 
12N34W AND ITS OWN PATCH OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 250 NM NE 
OF THE AXIS. 

$$
WALLACE