000 AXNT20 KNHC 241736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ35W 1N45W 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 130NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W AND FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING NARROW BANDS OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER E TEXAS/W-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS INTO N MEXICO ALONG 29N98W 28N106W. A ROPE OR LINE CLOUD DEFINES THE FRONT OVER LAND. MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS S INTO THE ERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER N TEXAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE N GULF WATERS BY A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MOST WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 69W FROM 17N-22N AND THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE E BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC... AN 959 MB LOW WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW...ENTERING THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 32N50W THEN CONTINUING TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 34N48W TO 24N54W. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS RATHER DRY...THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN UP TO 150 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACCORDING THE THE GFS MODEL...THE FRONT WILL RETROGRESS AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF/SE US. A COUPLE OF SFC HIGHS ARE CENTERED...OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N25W WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE FORECAST AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 60W SUPPORTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N ALONG 30W. $$ GR