000 AXNT20 KNHC 232332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 4W-13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE S OF 5N BETWEEN 35W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA...AND SURINAME ALONG AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG 90W HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TODAY. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR E OF 88W TO FLORIDA BUT CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF AS MOIST RETURN FLOW SETS UP INTO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TX SE TO 24N90W. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR N FLORIDA WITH PERHAPS THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS S FLORIDA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO THE NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM N FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF MON MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NRN GULF/GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY SAT/SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF SUN AND MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS. CARIBBEAN... MID-LEVEL HIGH TODAY IS CENTERED ALONG THE CAMPECHE COAST OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ESE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THIS IS PRODUCING AN ONGOING SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION AND IS KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS...LIKELY AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DOES EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA THEN TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS YESTERDAY HAS DEGENERATED INTO A NARROW SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING FROM BARBADOS SW TO 6N69W NEAR THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER. WEST ATLANTIC... A LARGE AND COMPLEX POLAR VORTEX REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS. AN INTENSE 969 MB LOW WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N61W ALTHOUGH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA FROM 31N58W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 240 NM SE OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 31N56W TO 24N70W. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS DRY...THERE ARE ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING UP TO 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ABOUT 150 NM N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SAT NIGHT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE PORTION CONTINUING TO THE E AND PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON MON BUT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SE. ELSEWHERE...A NON-SIGNIFICANT 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. EAST ATLANTIC... A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MADEIRA ISLAND NEAR 32N18W WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE AREA TO 25N40W THEN TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS STRONG HIGH CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE S...GENERALLY STRADDLING THE EQUATOR. THE UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG 26W AND A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND MOROCCO. BENEATH THAT FLOW...A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW/UPPER TROUGH IS STILL CENTERED NEAR 17N32W WITH ITS OWN PATCH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDES...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ BERG