000 AXNT20 KNHC 222336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N20W 1N30W 1S50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 2N W OF 36W SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NE BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA...AND SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE GULF REGION...WITH A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE STRETCHING SE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVING S ALONG A LINE FROM SRN GEORGIA TO MOBILE ALABAMA THEN NW INTO NE TEXAS...AND THE STRONGEST SWD PUSH OCCURS FROM FLORIDA EWD INTO THE ATLC WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE TROUGH-LIKE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM NE MEXICO NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDING THE AXIS GENERALLY N OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TEXAS. OTHERWISE THE AREA IS UNDER A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH IS CAUSING AN E/W ORIENTED BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-95W. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NE GULF TONIGHT THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS FRI AFTERNOON. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 27N ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT IT TOO WILL STALL OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...EXCEPT STRONGER OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 17N WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA EWD INTO VENEZUELA THEN NE ACROSS TRINIDAD INTO THE SRN ATLC. THIS IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A FEW TRADE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED BENEATH THE TRADE INVERSION...WITH A SOME MOVING INTO THE HIGHLANDS FROM SRN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. WEST ATLANTIC... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS BRUSHING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...ANCHORED BY A LARGE POLAR VORTEX WAY NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALONG 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND APPEARS TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR A PATCH OF TRAILING SUBSIDING AIR MOVING E OF FLORIDA TO ABOUT 65W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 23N HAS BEEN IMPEDED A BIT BY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH LIES FROM 31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...DEFINED MERELY BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND THIN CLOUD LINE. THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SWEEP SE THROUGH SAT...EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AS THE MORE ENERGETIC PART CONTINUES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY SAT FARTHER OUT OVER THE ATLC WATERS. EAST ATLANTIC... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE E ATLC WATERS WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N22W AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N50W. THE MAIN MID-LATITUDE FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC TO A BROAD RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 15W ALMOST NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. A NEARLY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF THE CAPE VERDES ALONG 33W AND LOOKS TO BE SECLUDED FROM THE MAIN FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE W. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY SPREADING SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA. $$ BERG