000 AXNT20 KNHC 211736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OFF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC RIDGING IS EXTENDING W INTO THE ERN GULF FROM THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING LIGHT SLY FLOW E OF 80W. AS OF 1500 UTC...A TROF IS IN THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N92W 20N97W. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1200 UTC REVEALED 20 TO 30 KT SE WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH LIGHTER E TO NE WINDS NW OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE WARMER SSTS NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 84W-93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DEEP LAYER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES...N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-94W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA AND ERN TEXAS. OVERALL THOUGH ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SOME SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE N OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE YUCATAN. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THU ASIDE FOR 15-20 KT FLOW NEAR THE TROF IN THE SW PORTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TOWARDS THE YUCATAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES HAVE TAKEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY S OF HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WAS AFFECTING THE AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE 1200 UTC MAP AS THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED AND IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE AREA. THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA. THE MOST CONCENTRATED OF THESE MOISTURE REGIONS ARE NOTED NEAR COASTAL NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...BETWEEN THE ABC AND SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS....AND BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE LATTER SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE FORMER TWO REGIONS SEEM MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE. EXTREMELY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AROUND RIDGING EXTENDING E THROUGH THE BASIN FROM THE YUCATAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SW NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1023 MB CENTER NEAR 26N72W AND A 1025 MB CENTER NEAR 31N51W. THE WEAKENING SFC RIDGE HAS BUILT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N27W AND CONTINUES SW TO 26N46W...AND IS THEN LIFTING SLOWLY N AS A WARM FROM THROUGH 21N63W. BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LITTLE THERMAL CONTRAST NOW NOTED. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONTS STRONGER DAYS ARE STILL BEING FELT WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES OR PUERTO RICO. THE LARGE NW/N SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY FROM W TO E ALONG THE ATLC FACING BEACHES IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB HIGH SITUATED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N22W. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA N OF 15N. A PAIR OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS ARE NEAR 13N54W AND 14N24W. $$ MW