000
AXNT20 KNHC 192358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W EQ20W 2S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 
3S40W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 7S-4N BETWEEN 
39W-43W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AXIS.  
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W.  FLORIDA 
PRESENTLY HAS LIGHT NELY WINDS.  10-20 KT SELY WINDS ARE OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W DUE TO RETURN FLOW.  BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE ALSO W OF 85W WHILE FLORIDA AND THE E GULF HAS MOSTLY 
FAIR SKIES.  RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL BRING THE 
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOW 50'S OVER MOST OF FLORIDA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS IS PRODUCING NWLY FLOW OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO 
MOVE QUICKLY E TO THE W ATLANTIC AND THUS PRODUCE SLY SURFACE 
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS SLY RETURN FLOW MAY PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING.       
   
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS ALONG 20N62W 16N70W MOVING RAPIDLY E.  LIGHT RAIN AND 
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS IS THE FIRST 
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WINTER.  NELY 
SURFACE WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 
70W.  THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 
70W ARE THE ONLY AREAS WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHES OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO 
CONTINUE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N53W TO 22N60W TO THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS.  LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALONG 
THE FRONT.  A SECONDARY SURGE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
IS FURTHER W ALONG 30N60W 27N70W 28N79W.  DENSE OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS ARE N OF THIS FRONT.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 
26N44W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N14W. 

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FORMOSA