000
AXNT20 KNHC 190516
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N27W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 3W-8W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W 
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 79W COVERING THE GULF E OF 90W. WEAK 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NE TEXAS 
COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLEARED THE GULF EARLY SUN 
LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF 
THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW GULF. SUBTROPICAL JET HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS 
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT 
COVERING THE GULF N OF 22N. 
   
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS 
S ACROSS CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 
TO CENTRAL BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT AND ARE W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 
18N70W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM COSTA RICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS 
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO 
THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 
1002 MB LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N67W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A 
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 22N69W. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
150/175 NM OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA/CUBA NEAR 20N73W TO BEYOND 
32N64W. A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT 
THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL 
FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W COVERING THE AREA FROM 33W-65W. A 
NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER 
AFRICA NEAR 26N14W SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N49W 
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE E ATLC IS 
ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA W OF THE 
COLD FRONT WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N30W TO JUST E OF 
THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N58W SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. 

$$
WALLACE