000 AXNT20 KNHC 181742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 38W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-20W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 1.5N39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS RAPIDLY MOVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. AROUND 13Z...THE FRONT CROSSED KEY WEST IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT. ONE HOUR LATER THIS SYSTEM AFFECTED THE GREAT MIAMI WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR 22 KT. AT 15Z...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY E OF 85W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE GULF WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE NW CORNER. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE E AND MIDDLE GULF FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. 1156Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG WINDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE E US SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE E GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR W GULF. A 1034 MB SFC HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NE MEXICO FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT GIVING THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY/COLD AIR. FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. HAVANA ALSO REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 24 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TONIGHT. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE AFFECTING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY SINKING AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVELS CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 18/1500 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB SFC LOW NEAR 31N76W SW ACROSS W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N44W CONTINUING MAINLY W TO 28N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 25N67W. SLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLC RIDGE HAVE PUSHED THE FRONT FARTHER N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130/180 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE N OF THE REGION. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT THAT COVERS THE N GULF WATERS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N30W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC AND NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SW INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 13N40W. THE E ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. $$ GR