000 AXNT20 KNHC 181113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 3N31W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 42W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING THROUGH ALABAMA/GEORGIA TO 26N87W EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SETTING UP WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. AT 18/0900 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 24N86W TO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GULF IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM NW OF THE FRONT E OF 86W AND WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 86W-93W. SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE N GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT COVERING THE GULF N OF 22N. CARIBBEAN SEA... REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/ PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE E OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 18/0900 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W TO BEYOND 32N74W AND A 1020 MB HIGH ANCHORED JUST E OF BERMUDA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W CONTINUING SW TO 26N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND DISSIPATES INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N75W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/250 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE N OF THE REGION. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N73W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N37W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N11W SW INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 13N37W. THE E ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO JUST E OF CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 25N53W SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. $$ WALLACE