000 AXNT20 KNHC 162346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N25W 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W...1S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 29W...EXCEPT FOR MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY NEAR COASTAL BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BROUGHT THE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL EXISTS IN THE SRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO FT MYERS. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXIST NW OF THAT LINE EXCEPT FOR THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST...WHERE COLD OFFSHORE FLOW...VERY DRY AIR...AND COOLER SSTS ARE PREVENTING MUCH CLOUD COVER. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER WSW FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF...WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 22N-29N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...AS OF 2100 UTC A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W. STRONG NLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE SRN GULF MAINLY S OF 26N BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG NW TO N FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT INTO SUN BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A VERY BROAD STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION SUPPLYING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY. THE DRIEST AIR IS IN THE UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA. BENEATH THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING STEERED BY LIGHT ELY TRADES E OF 78W. WINDS IN THE NW CARIB ARE DRIVEN BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIGHTER SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N83W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAINFALL EXIST NW OF THIS FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO EXIST BETWEEN THE ERN TIP OF HONDURAS NE THROUGH JAMAICA. WINDS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY SWITCHED FROM S TO N AT BUOY 42057. IF THIS FEATURE PERSISTS WILL ADD TO 17/0000 UTC MAP. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND E OF THE FRONT EXCEPT TO 25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 400 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N65W AND CONTINUES WSW TO 30N80W...WHICH IS ADDING A LITTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE PREDOMINANT STRONG NW WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. THE REMAINDER OF THE SFC PATTERN IN THE ATLC AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W. THIS IS SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. MID TO UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W. SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE NW PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE E ATLC WATERS ALONG 25N31W SW TO 14N43W. WINDS IN THE WRN ATLC WILL RELAX THROUGH SAT THOUGH THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE NW WINDS/WAVES OFF THE FL COAST INTO SUN AND MON. $$ WILLIS