000 AXNT20 KNHC 161701 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N24W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 37W TO 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 23N80W CLIPPING W CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND S OF A LINE ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N91W TO MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE. N OF THIS LINE TO 29N BETWEEN 85W-96W ARE OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT COVER THE GULF CENTERED ALONG THE N GULF COAST INTO THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CLIPS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W TO N GUATEMALA. DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N81W 20N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA ANCHORED ROUGHLY BETWEEN E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE ABC ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES WSW ALONG 27N70W THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W WITH DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE SE US WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY N OF THE REGION. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N75W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO BEYOND 32N55W. THE LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY BENIGN ACROSS THE REMAINED OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS A GOOD REGION. $$ WALLACE