000
AXNT20 KNHC 150606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 38W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N78W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
COAST OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 23N87W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO 21N95W...INTO MEXICO TO 23N100W...AND 
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND WEST TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF 25N80W 23N87W 21N93W 19N93W.
A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME SECTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE 
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 
TODAY ARE IN THE LOW 20S FAHRENHEIT FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA AND IN
THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE MINIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE 
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS IN THE LOW 50S...AND IN THE 
LOW 40S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF 20N63W-12N71W AT THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN 
COLOMBIA. THIS FLOW FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH OF WEDNESDAY...THAT ORIGINALLY HAD MOVED THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO TWO DAYS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS EVERYTHING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS WEAK...IN REFERENCE TO THE ISOBARIC PATTERN FROM
THE 15/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EAST OF 70W FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...BECOMING CYCLONIC SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND CONTINUING AS ANTICYCLONIC 
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS 
EAST OF 67W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES IN 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 32N66W TO 26N64W. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 
30N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO 
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 
23N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W 
AND 65W...WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N72W 28N71W
BEYOND 31N66W. GENERALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W WITH
THIS FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE RUNS FROM 10N50W TO 27N50W BEYOND 33N52W. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 37W NORTH OF 24N...CONTINUING EVEN 
BEYOND 40N33W. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W OVER THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS.

$$
MT