000 AXNT20 KNHC 121745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 15W-22W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N10W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER THE GULF WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW. AT 15Z THE LOW IS NEAR 24N87W. THE 10M BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SFC TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. DOPPLER RADAR IS DEPICTING LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS/KEYS...CAPABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. LONG KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS RECEIVED AROUND 6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90/91W AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVELS CLOUD LINES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF INTO SOUTH TEXAS...UNDER THE SLY WIND FLOW. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR IS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N68W. THE SLY WINDS ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS DRAWING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE ARE AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD FRONT IS STILL GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW FROM 32N46W TO NEAR 25N61W CONTINUING AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD FROM HISPANIOLA TO 32N40W AND BEYOND. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COVERING THE W ATLC. ANOTHER SFC HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA ALSO DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE E ATLC AND EXTENDS ALONG 32N23W 20N30W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N40W. $$ GR