000
AXNT20 KNHC 121118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 3N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL AT 3S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1S19W 
1N18W 2N17W 4N16W...AND FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W AND 5W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE EAST 
CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL WATERS. 
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 86W. 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE EAST OF 90W. THE NORTHWESTERN SURFACE TROUGH
OF SIX HOURS HAS MOVED ONSHORE...SPREADING RAIN INTO SOUTH 
TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 86W/87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE 
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS 
OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W...FROM THE WINDWARD CHANNEL 
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND FROM 13N TO 17N WEST OF 77W MOVING 
TOWARD LAND. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...FROM PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 
THE EQUATOR WEST OF 60W...MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN...PASSING 
ON TOP OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N50W TO 
27N60W TO 25N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N50W 
TO 22N60W TO THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N66W 22N60W 26N51W BEYOND 31N38W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 42W. A MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N28W TO 24N28W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES 
FROM A 1026 MB MADEIRA ISLANDS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N22W
TO 23N46W 21N54W. BROAD REMNANT CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 12N BETWEEN 27W AND 43W.

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