000 AXNT20 KNHC 111206 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N9W 6N12W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S49W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 5W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N96W...PART OF A TROUGH THAT HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N62W TO 29N70W...TO RIGHT ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...CLEARLY DEFINED BY THICK LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 95W...AND NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER UNIFORM FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FRONT BASED SOLELY ON WIND DIRECTIONS. THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENT HAS BEEN USED IN ORDER TO DEFINE THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BECOME DIFFUSE...AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 13N67W 22N73W. ABUNDANT DRY STABLE AIR/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS ESSENTIALLY A LINE OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N62W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE. THESE SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE IN SPEED ON MONDAY A RIDGE THAT NOW IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N62W TO 29N70W TO RIGHT ON TOP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 25N76W 26N66W BEYOND 31N57W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N50W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N62W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST EASTWARD TO 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N35W TO 27N42W TO 23N46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N62W 26N53W 30N42W BEYOND 32N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1028 MB MADEIRA ISLANDS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO 25N35W TO 22N52W TO 19N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N26W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 12N44W 9N49W. $$ MT