000 AXNT20 KNHC 092321 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...TO 1S50W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 16W...BETWEEN 25W-28W AND W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST N OF THE AREA DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE TAIL END WHICH HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF FROM CENTRAL LA TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N91W 27N97W. THE FRONT CONTINUES STATIONARY NW ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO WRN TEXAS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SE COAST ALONG OR N OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER S...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED ANALYZED ALONG 21N88W 28N84W. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE NLY ARE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. ALOFT...A STREAM OF BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING ACROSS THE AREA DRIVEN BY STRONG SW-WLY FLOW BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND W-NWLY FLOW ABOVE THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NOT MUCH NEW TO MENTION IN THE CARIB SEA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING NEWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE BEING DRIVEN WWD BY MODERATE TRADES. THE PATCHES APPEAR THICKEST IN THE SE CARIB/THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A SFC TROUGH IN THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SFC PATTERN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT COMPLEX IN THE W ATLC WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CLIPPING THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS OF 21Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N74W ALONG 29N79W TO A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SE GEORGIA. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 27N68W. NEITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PRODUCING MUCH DEEP CLOUDINESS/PRECIP...HOWEVER DIRECTIONAL AND MAGNITUDE WIND CHANGES ARE EVIDENT NEAR BOTH. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING FAST MOVING SFC LOWS ENERGIZED BY A STRONG JETSTREAM TO THE SE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING POLAR VORTEX. S OF THE FRONTS DESCRIBED IS A PERSISTENT NE-SW ELONGATED SFC TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 28N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SOME NWP MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH MERGING WITH THE FRONT TO THE N LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N56W. THIS RIDGE HAS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT ITS STILL SUPPLYING AND ADVECTING PLENTY OF STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC W OF 30W S OF 26N. IN THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS CENTERED NEAR 14N30W. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AND SPREADING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE LOW S OF 14N. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E ATLC REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED 180 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W HELPING TO KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICS E OF 40W. $$ CANGIALOSI