000 AXNT20 KNHC 090602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N8W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SMALL CLUSTERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 20N114W...HELPING TO PUSH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE OPEN GULF WATERS. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH 20N100W...UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY OFF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 27N87W 24N87W...ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 20N87W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO EASTERN TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUGGING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S.A. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS. IT IS NOT FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA COMPLETELY THOUGH...BY 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N72W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE WHICH STARTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS AT ITS COMPARATIVELY MOST CONCENTRATED AMOUNT NEAR THE POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOSTLY EAST OF 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N73W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING MORE THAN ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE COLD FRONT ORIGINATES FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N65W TO 31N70W TO 28N77W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FIRST FRONT. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N65W 24N70W 23N73W 23N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N60W 27N66W 23N74W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO 20N WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 35N24W 27N25W MAYBE TO 22N25W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N29W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 10N33W AND MAYBE 10N40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 40W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N44W TO 28N50W TO 24N62W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 33N4W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N26W TO 27N36W TO 24N50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N44W 24N62W STATIONARY FRONT. $$ MT