000 AXNT20 KNHC 072332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N18W 1N29W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S477W. MUCH OF THE AXIS IS RATHER QUIET...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL FROM THE EQ TO 5S BETWEEN 41W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR ABOUT 2/3 RD OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE FAIR WEATHER IS SUPPORTED BY A SFC RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NE PORTION AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK NEWLY FORMED SFC TROUGH...WHICH WAS THOUGHT TO BE DVLPG IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IS ALONG 87W S OF 27N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 81W-88W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE KEYS AND NAPLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO ITS A GOOD ASSUMPTION TO BELIEVE THERE IS SIMILAR ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION OUTLINED. THE WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE E SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED E FETCH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WRN GULF. THIS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER FLOW MAY VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE WSW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE TO THE W GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXTREMELY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH THE DRIEST AIR REMAINING S OF 15N. MUCH OF THIS DRY AIR IS A BYPRODUCT OF UPPER CONFLUENCE AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENSIVE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF AND NW CARIB. AT THE SFC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES ARE THICKEST E OF 65W WHERE A FEW STATIONS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. SIMILAR TRADES/WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AND FRI. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N42W AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N58W THEN STATIONARY TO 22N69W. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS N OF THE AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND IT. ALOFT...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS CARRYING A VERY THIN LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS...ROUGHLY 90 NM IN WIDTH...THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM S FLA TO NEAR 32N45W. DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS LINE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N55W WHICH RIDGES NEWARD TO 32N31N. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 14N35W BREAKING UP THE STRONG RIDGE. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW ...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE/MOIST UPPER SWLY FLOW... FROM 12N-22N E OF 34W. SFC PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N38W THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING LOWS IN THE NW/N CENTRAL ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI