000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 44W INTO NE BRAZIL.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 23W-34W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 
44W-48W.     

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 
31N84W IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED S OF 27N WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHOWERS ARE HEAVIEST OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA.  A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE CENTERED NEAR 20N94W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW 
DOMINATES.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W.  A 
BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE SE GULF E OF 
91W AND S OF 27N MOVING RAPIDLY E.  EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AREAS OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E 
OF 78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH PREDOMINATELY SWLY FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE 
BAHAMAS ALONG 32N55W 24N73W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE FRONT 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE LINE 23N80W 32N60W.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N37W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING W TO 24N55W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO N OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC N OF 
10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 15N31W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA