000 AXNT20 KNHC 061203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 12N12W 6N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S46W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 19W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IS MIXED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 23N TO 30N WEST OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N74W...TO CUBA TO 21N80W... CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N90W... CURVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS ENTIRE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT ARE SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. THE 24 HOUR TO 48 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE 06/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE CENTRAL SECTION BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF 12N62W 13N68W 16N76W 14N82W. THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N54W TO 11N62W 12N72W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N58W TO 24N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO CUBA TO 21N80W...CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N90W...CURVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS ENTIRE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT ARE SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT CONTINUES TO GO NORTH OF 30N AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N6W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN MOROCCO NEAR 33N6W TO 25N15W AT THE MOROCCO COAST TO 23N21W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N34W TO 12N44W 11N52W TO 10N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND WITHIN 360 NM TO 420 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 40W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N10W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N37W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 25W AND THE 31N58W 24N69W COLD FRONT. $$ MT