000 AXNT20 KNHC 060603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 5N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IS MIXED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 23N TO 30N WEST OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N91W NEAR NORTHERN GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. THE 24 HOUR TO 48 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE 06/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE CENTRAL SECTION BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF 12N62W 13N68W 16N76W 14N82W. THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N54W TO 11N62W 12N72W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 26N70W TO 25N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N91W NEAR NORTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT CONTINUES TO GO NORTH OF 30N AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N14W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N14W TO 25N18W 23N26W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N34W TO 12N46W TO 10N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 30W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N15W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONNECTS THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N8W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N39W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 25W AND THE 31N60W 26N70W COLD FRONT. $$ MT