000
AXNT20 KNHC 052314
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W EQ34W 3S43W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 25W-34W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL FROM 3S-6S BETWEEN 41W-43W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA TO THE NRN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N80W 21N90W 18N91W.  OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT.  20-30 KT NELY WINDS COVERS THE 
GULF.  A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR...DEPICTED AS A COLD FRONT 
...IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
28N80W 29N90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH 
CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 21N.  EXPECT THE 
STATIONARY FRONT TO STAY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE SRN GULF OF 
MEXICO S OF 26N WHERE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE THE THICKEST.  
ALSO EXPECT THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AREAS OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E 
OF 73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA 
TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO 
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO N CUBA 
ALONG 32N60W 27N70W 23N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 
32N70W 28N80W.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE MID 
50'S N OF THE FRONT.  IN CONTRAST THE TEMPERATURE AT NASSAU 
BAHAMAS IS 72F.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 30N40W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 25N63W.  A 1014 MB 
LOW IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 
34N21W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 20W-40W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 18N33W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA