000 AXNT20 KNHC 030539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W CONTINUING ALONG 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM N W OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SE...AT 03Z IT WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH FL TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 26N82W 22N91W 19N96W THEN STATIONARY NWD ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WHEN SEVERE DAMAGING STORMS WERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN N AND CENTRAL FLA...DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN S CENTRAL FL. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT IN ABUNDANCE...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION TRANSPORTED AND ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT. THE THICKEST CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS W OF 92W...CLOSER TO THE BASE OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS BAJA INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. THE FRONT IS MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN A WARM HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS AND A COOLER MORE SEASONABLE ONE ADVECTED IN BY BRISK NLY WINDS. THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN GULF...THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E TIGHTENING THE PRES GRAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAUSING THIS STABILITY IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIB AND A LARGE FLAT RIDGE CENTERED ABOVE THE EQUATORIAL ATLC. THE AIR IS SO STABLE ALOFT THAT THE WV COLOR ENHANCEMENTS ARE IN THE DRIEST RANGE ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION...THICKEST AND MOST ORGANIZED E OF 72W. RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY COMPONENT IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE S GULF. GFS SHOWS THE TRADES REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG THRU THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED FROM A 1002 MB LOW OFF THE VIRGINA COAST ALONG 32N75W TO S FLA. WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET DOES EXIST. THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY CONTAINED N OF 24N W OF 44W AND IS DEEPER IN NATURE BETWEEN 48W-55W WHERE INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED BY A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS S OF THE AREA OUTLINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE SAME RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIB WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 21N73W TO BERMUDA. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL/ERN ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N36W 23N39W 15N50W. AN ASSOCIATED 1017 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE WRN AZORES ISLANDS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW TO 24N43W. THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SFC LIFT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL ATLC AND THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL BELT FROM 10N-20N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI