000 AXNT20 KNHC 020534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 26W CONTINUING ALONG 1S30W 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2S-6S BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. AS OF 09Z...A 1004 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THEN STATIONARY UP THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE TO SW TEXAS. LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE SFC LOW/FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS STREAMING IN FROM THE EPAC IS ADVECTING AND PRODUCING COPIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN THE NE GULF AND ACROSS N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS STRONGEST. THIS IS CONFIRMED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 87W N OF 28N. IN FACT...POSSIBLE TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA. STIFF S-SWLY FLOW IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR EARLY FEB. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG S CLEARING MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE INCREASING THE WINDS AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ON THE DOWNWARD ERN BRANCH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE EPAC WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W CARIB. THE DRIEST AIR IS OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG BETWEEN THE RIDGE MENTIONED AND ANOTHER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. SMALL POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT QUICK MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY COMPONENT IN THE W CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NWP MODELS SHOW THE TRADES REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE STRONG RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIB EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE ATLC AND BEYOND BERMUDA. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET AND COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS SHIFTING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 72W. SW SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SHORTLY IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S AND E OF THAT AREA OUT TO 50W...PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ABOVE THE NRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR 27N44W. AN ASSOCIATED 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 36N41W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 26N52W CONTINUING AS A SFC TROUGH TO 22N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/MOIST UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG WITH SFC CONV IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 36W. IN THE E ATLC...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 23W-36W AND AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING E OF 23W EXTENDING FAR S BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE E ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO RATHER DRY STABLE AIR FROM 10N-20N LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI