000 AXNT20 KNHC 011807 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N8W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W...1S30W TO 4S43W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6S BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER FROM YESTERDAY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN STILL IS A FEATURE AT THIS TIME. IT RUNS NOW FROM CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 87W. A WARM FRONT RUNS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TO THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...TO A TEXAS 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N99W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 30N102W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W..AND OVER MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EMERGES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWARD IN THE SEA WEST OF 73W. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 01/1200 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE EAST OF 73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS COMPARATIVELY ITS GREATEST EAST OF 81W. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NOT ANY MORE YET. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS SOUTH OF 17N. THE AREA NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 80W APPEARS TO BE UNDER SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS NORTH OF 11N61W 13N70W 14N75W 11N76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 54W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 22N54W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 31N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 31N54W 28N60W 27N73W. A SECOND COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N49W TO 30N50W 26N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N55W TO 24N60W TO 22N72W NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N59W 25N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N51W 29N47W BEYOND 32N44W. A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG 21N43W 28N40W BEYOND 34N38W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N23W TO 20N23W 15N26W TO 11N36W. THIS TROUGH IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 33N27W TO 26N39W 16N48W 9N49W. $$ MT