000 AXNT20 KNHC 011137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W CONTINUING ALONG 1S35W 2S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 20W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF LIES ON THE N SIDE OF A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL E PAC. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGES...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND SPREAD FURTHER E ACROSS THE S GULF TODAY. AT THE SFC...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A COUPLE WEAK LOWS OR FRONTAL WAVES ALONG IT ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW IN S MS TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR THE TX/MEX BORDER...NEAR 26N98W... CONTINUING TO SW TEXAS AT 09Z. SINCE THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND OVER THE SE STATES...THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNIFORM SLY ACROSS THE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE E GULF WHERE THE PRES GRAD IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WELL INLAND...SOME OF IT IN THE FROZEN FORM ACROSS NRN AL AND GA. MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS S OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE N GULF. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AS A COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN W PROVIDES SUPPORT. CARIBBEAN SEA... PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING SINKING STABLE AIR. THE DRIEST AIR LIES ABOVE THE SE CARIB AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING STABILITY. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS...ELY TRADES ARE GENERATING AND DRIVING SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THESE PATCHES ARE VERY THIN IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB BUT APPEAR A LITTLE THICKER AND MORE ORGANIZED IN THE NW CARIB AND S GULF WHERE THE FLOW DEVELOPS A SLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW/FRONT IN THE SRN U.S. SPEAKING OF THE TRADES...THE FLOW IS FAIRLY MODERATE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL STRONGER WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO 26N53W. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PART OF A VERY LARGE POLAR UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN CANADA. MOIST STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH A NEWLY FORMED 1012 MB SFC LOW NEAR 31N53W IS PROVIDING ENERGY TO GENERATE A SWATH OF MOISTURE N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-48W. THIS MOISTURE SWATH IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY E. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 25N59W THEN MAINLY W AS A SFC TROF TO THE E BAHAMAS. S AND W OF THE AREA OUTLINED...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SW AND S CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIB. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LARGE RIDGE COVERING THE REGION BETWEEN 28W-48W AND A SHARP DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MENTIONED EARLIER...IS LOCKED INTO THE RIDGE N OF 27N. THIS MOISTURE DRIES OUT ON THE DOWNWARD BRANCH BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...NAMELY E OF 32W. $$ CANGIALOSI