000 AXNT20 KNHC 311824 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N4W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1S40W TO 1S50W IN NORTHERN BRAZIL. 4N8W 3N18W 3N30W 3N35W. 1S21W 3S27W 2S28W 1S34W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 3N18W 3N30W 3N35W... AND 1S21W 3S27W 2S28W 1S34W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 38W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST TILT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ABOUT 500 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OF CALIFORNIA. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HELPS TO BUILD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM 12N102W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 31/1500 UTC SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL ZONAL FLOW MOSTLY AROUND THE COASTAL PLAINS/WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TWO WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE GULF FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 31/1200 UTC HAVE GIVEN WAY TO ONE 1015 MB TEXAS COAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N96W AT 31/1500 UTC. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N90W AND 27N85W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS SOUTH OF 17N. THE AREA NORTH OF 17N AND WEST OF 80W APPEARS TO BE UNDER SURFACE-TO- LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN LINES OF SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ABOUND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 27N76W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 81W FROM 27N TO 28N. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS TROUGH...AND THE SOUTHERN POINT OF THIS FRONT IS 31N75W. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THIS FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 27N76W... MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N56W. SOME OF THE FLOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD 8N46W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES...THROUGH 34N23W TO 27N23W TO 21N24W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREA OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W TO 11N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N40W TO 20N52W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE TROUGH THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N52W IS OUT OF THE AREA NORTH OF 32N. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N52W TO 21N72W...IN BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND HAITI. THE CLOUD LINE MARKING THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. $$ MT