000 AXNT20 KNHC 301148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N23W 2N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 26W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER SE TEXAS AT 0900 UTC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 83W. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 87W-96W. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 EXTENDS FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE SE US CLIPPING THE N GULF THEN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E US AND GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA. A RE-INFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING INTO THE GULF ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THAT EXTENDED FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETE DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N51W NE TO BEYOND 32N44W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W S ALONG 20N32W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N34W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT EXTEND FAR INTO THE REGION ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N25W S TO 29N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WITH A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N35W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA. $$ WALLACE