000 AXNT20 KNHC 300501 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N24W 2N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN W OF 92W. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SE US JUST CLIPPING THE N GULF THEN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E US AND GULF WITH A RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. A RE-INFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL ACROSS THE REGION WED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING INTO THE GULF ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT DISSIPATES NEAR E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N62W ACROSS THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE PRIMARY FRONT N OF 26N WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT TO 80W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N54W NE TO BEYOND 32N46W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W S ALONG 20N34W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 12N39W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT EXTEND INTO THE TROPICS ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N25W SW TO 25N34W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS PARTIALLY BISECTED BY THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 37N35W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO BEYOND 32N. $$ WALLACE