000
AXNT20 KNHC 291117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N20W 2N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 9W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 
22N35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF 
90W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 100W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US AND THE E GULF AND INTO THE W 
ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF 
ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W TO 27N88W WEAKENING TO 
26N93W. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 EXTENDS 
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SE US THEN DIPPING S OVER THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO...THE DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE 
GULF IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE COLD FRONT. 
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE 
E/CENTRAL US INTO THE GULF AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US 
AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/ 
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN 
INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY 
WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FAR SE 
US INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS OVER 
BERMUDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE 
PRIMARY FRONT N OF 26N W OF 58W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT TO 
80W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND 
32N55W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W SW TO 18N45W AND THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W EXTENDING SW 
TO 23N42W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO 
NEAR 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY 
THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 
32N43W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 23W FROM 
18N TO BEYOND 32N. 

$$
WALLACE