000 AXNT20 KNHC 290507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N23W 2N38W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 4N FROM 9W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO 27N90W RAPIDLY WEAKENING TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 130 CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF FROM S TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO...THE DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE GULF IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE E/CENTRAL US INTO THE GULF AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SE US INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W WITH THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N78W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE PRIMARY FRONT N OF 27N FROM 61W-71W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT TO THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N61W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W SSW TO 20N48W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 23N45W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO NEAR 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N42W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N30W N TO BEYOND 32N23W. $$ WALLACE