000 AXNT20 KNHC 281751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N35W 3N45W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 70-90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-16W AND FROM 25W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE E U.S. IS DIGGING ACROSS THE E GULF. AT 1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 33N75W SSW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N92W. DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE E METROPOLITAN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 26N78W TO 21N82W CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH SWLY WINDS OF 110 TO 140 CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ADVECTING UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MON. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AT LOW LEVELS...NELY WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N50W CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE ENTERS THE W ATLC. SWLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT N OF 28N. AN ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. FREEPORT REPORTED HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 24 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 60W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW TO 23N50W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR 22N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT E OF 50W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N FROM 40W-52W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING N ALONG 29/30W . A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS...ONE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E INLAND OVER W AFRICA THEN DISSIPATE. $$ GR