000 AXNT20 KNHC 281058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0700 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N19W 2N28W 3N43W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-20W AND FROM 25W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US AND THE N GULF APPROACHING THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA. AT 0900 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W SSW ALONG 24N87W ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO OVER JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. A SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING EXTENDING FROM A 1017 MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 140 CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ADVECTING UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO FUELING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE E GULF. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NW TO N SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE LEADING FRONT WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF. THE LEADING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF BY TONIGHT AS THE SECOND FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISHING. CARIBBEAN SEA... REMNANT SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 18N FROM 73W-84W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MON. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CLIP THE N CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ANCHORED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N58W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA OFF THE E US COAST ALONG 73W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING SW TO 22N53W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR 21N69W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM N AND W OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE GULF CROSSING FLORIDA AND THE SE US INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 67W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 37W-60W. A WEAKENING 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N41W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N38W NE TO BEYOND 32N31W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W S TO 20N16W WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED SSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N18W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E INLAND OVER W AFRICA THEN DISSIPATE. $$ WALLACE