000 AXNT20 KNHC 280509 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N19W 3N26W 3N43W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US AND THE N GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW GEORGIA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OFF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N88W SW ALONG 23N93W TO E MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 88W. A SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 140 CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE ADVECTING UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO FUELING THE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE E GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE GULF LAST NIGHT...HAS SHIFTED INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE ONLY THE SE GULF TONIGHT. STRONG NW TO N SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF BY MON MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE WINDS TO MODERATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LOST ALL IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 17N W OF 72W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MON. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CLIP THE N CARIBBEAN AS IT SLIDES INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW ATLC WITH A 1022 MB HIGH SSW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N67W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA ALONG THE E US COAST ALONG 76W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW ALONG 21N55W THEN W TO 21N65W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM N AND W OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE GULF CROSSING FLORIDA AND THE SE US INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 40W-65W. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N42W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N39W NE TO BEYOND 32N31W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W S TO 18N18W WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N19W. THIS SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. $$ WALLACE