000
AXNT20 KNHC 271125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N21W 4N47W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-51W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING 
WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND A DEVELOPING 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. A 
DOUBLE 1023 MB HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE US/W ATLC. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER THE N GULF 
COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO 
STREAM ACROSS MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF BRINGING BROKEN/ 
OVERCAST DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS OVER GULF TO THE W COAST OF 
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE FROM 
MEXICO NEAR 19N96W 27N93W TO 29N88W. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY 
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATE TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS 
WITH BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA NW 
OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/ 
HONDURAS. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA 
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR 
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA ACROSS CUBA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. 
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 
75W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO 
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER THE SW ATLC BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW 
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
FOR BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS IN THE N PORTION OF 
THE AREA...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAHSFAT2 FOR 
MORE DETAILS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W. 
THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 
26N FROM 52W-75W. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N44W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
BETWEEN 30W-52W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC W 
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N21W WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1004 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N21W AND A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING E ALONG 27N19W THEN SW TO 20N30W. THIS SURFACE LOW/ 
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE LATER TODAY THEN 
WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 21N-32N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA INCLUDING THE 
CANARY ISLANDS. 

$$
WALLACE