000 AXNT20 KNHC 261806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N9W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEST TEXAS- NORTHERN MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TOWARD 20N120W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N105W 22N100W 23N90W 24N80W BEYOND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 20N80W TO 18N83W TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE SECTION NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT IS FOR NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N78W FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...TO 15N81W...TO 13N82W TO 11N83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N57W TO 29N60W TO 24N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N70W TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. A DISSIPATING SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ABOUT 360 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST COLD BOUNDARY EAST OF 80W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A WELL-DEFINED LINE OF CLOUDS. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 11 TO 16 FT...AND NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 420 NM WEST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N48W... BEYOND 32N45W TO 43N42W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPEARS ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N31W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N26W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 26N26W 22N28W AND 19N29W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N32W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N25W. THE WARM FRONT GOES TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT GOES TO 28N27W AND 24N37W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N27W 31N21W 28N17W 26N19W 26N24W. $$ MT