000 AXNT20 KNHC 261132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W TO 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 22W TO 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. AS A RESULT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. AS THE HIGH MOVES E TODAY TOWARD THE W ATLC WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE REGION. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THE NW GULF TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E REACHING N FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT TRAILING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT 09Z...A SFC TROUGH IS ALREADY ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH GOES FROM 27N97W TO 20N92W. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. NLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL...WESTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS IN A VERY STABLE REGIME AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE EASTERLY TRADES ARE MAINLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...STRONGEST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WHICH IS TYPICAL DUE TO THE LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE DRIVEN W BY THE TRADES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY SLY WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 31N60W TO 25N70W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA. OVERCAST CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SWLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. A SECONDARY FRONT IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG 30N WEST OF 72W. ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CARIB COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 50W. A SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 150 KT...IS RIDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SPREADING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EXISTS S OF THERE. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NEAR 35N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N37W WHILE A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N27W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 20W-25W. A SFC TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE CANARY OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA. WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. $$ GR