000 AXNT20 KNHC 260549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W TO 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 22W TO 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 03Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP...WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH CLEARING BEHIND THAT ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER THE GULF SFC PATTERN TEMPORARILY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS DEVELOPS IN THE NW GULF DURING SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E REACHING N FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT TRAILING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A 180-200 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVERING WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS IN A VERY STABLE REGIME AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...BUT THE NLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. ELSEWHERE EASTERLY TRADES ARE MAINLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...STRONGEST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WHICH IS TYPICAL DUE TO THE LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE DRIVEN W BY THE TRADES IN THE ERN CARIB AND THEN STEERED TO THE N-NE AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROF ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N66W THEN CONTINUES SW OVER WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVERCAST CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SWLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CARIB COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 50W. A SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 150 KT...IS RIDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SPREADING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EXISTS S OF THERE. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A WEAK SFC TROUGH GOES FROM 27N40W TO 29N34W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS POINT. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N20W. IN BETWEEN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 25N. WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. $$ GR