000 AXNT20 KNHC 251139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W TO 2S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND BETWEEN 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0900 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 26N84W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING MAINLY E DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. STRONG SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE FT. MYERS AREA. A COLD FRONT RUNS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN TO BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. VIGOROUS COLD AIR IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST/WEST GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUD COVER OVER THIS REGION JUST E OF THE FRONT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NW OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS 30-35 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TODAY AND N TO NE WINDS 20 KT UP TO GALE FORCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A NEW SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST REACHING NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS EVERYWHERE BUT MAINLY E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS 15 KT UP TO 25 KT DOMINATE. EVEN THESE MODEST TRADES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS A COLD FRONT REDUCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA. TYPICAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. I ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG W TO NW WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WWD FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND INTENSIFY INCREASING WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA LATE TODAY. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 25N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N41W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK CENTERS OF HIGH PRES ARE OVER CUBA...NE OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR 22N25W. $$ GR