000 AXNT20 KNHC 241133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 3N25W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 34W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-90 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N TEXAS TO A LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AT 0900 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1013 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 25.5N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COLD FRONT NOW TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES IS INVADING THE NE MEXICO AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS N OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/FRONTS ARE IMPACTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE US GULF COASTAL REGION...BUT PARTICULARLY TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. STRONG SW TO W WINDS ALOFT ARE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF AND N FLORIDA. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN HELPING THE FRONT TO MOVE S AND E OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF BY TOMORROW NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ATLC CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE. ONLY SHORT-LIVE SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT IN THIS REGION. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE E TO NE TRADES PREVAIL WITH PEAK WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STABLE NW WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 26/27W WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING WEST AFRICA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N56W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS A CONTINUATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF 60W. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N25W TO 21N42W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WEST OF 42W AND REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST SOUTH OF GUADALUPE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A COUPLE OF HIGH PRES CENTERS ARE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE CIRRUS ENTERS WEST AFRICA JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR