000 AXNT20 KNHC 230537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W EQ30W 1S46W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 3.5N14W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE COOL AIR IS BANKING UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED THERE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS IMPACTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE US GULF COASTAL REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND STALL. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST/WEST GULF. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO DIG. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN... CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SUBSIDENCE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. STRONG TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N75W...THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT COULD REACH GALE FORCE BETWEEN 70W AND 50W NORTH OF 29N IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 20N45W TO 17N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED AS A CONTINUATION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EAST OF 45W. ONLY SMALL SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WEST OF 45W. A 1020 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N63W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL FEATURE OVER THE ISLANDS SHOULD START WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE US SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR CUBA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. $$ GR