000 AXNT20 KNHC 221135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N40W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 14W-21W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB SFC LOW OVER SW GEORGIA ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 29N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES ALONG 25N95W INTO MAINLAND MEXICO CROSSING SOUTH OF TAMPICO AND CONTINUING N ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SW TO OVER NW MEXICO SUPPORTS THE LOW AND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY STRONG SWLY WINDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS INTO THE SE U.S.. A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTEND FROM THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS CUBA AND OVER THE W ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO TAMPA BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A SFC HIGH IS BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF AND WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE N AND W GULF BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE TRADES ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH WED. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS APPROACHING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. MORE DETAILS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N40W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 23N50W TO 22N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A NARROW BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT SOUTH OF 27N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH WEST OF 60W AND WILL REACH FIRST HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARD PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E ATLC NEAR 25N22W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 12N30W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC. $$ GR