000 AXNT20 KNHC 210601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 3N2W 5N12W 4N30W 3N37W 4N43W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD...FROM 7N TO 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTH OF 20N...ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS AND NORTHWARD BEYOND TEXAS...IN RESPONSE TO A CENTRAL U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...NOW RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA TO FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE STILL KEEPING THE AREA FREE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ONLY FROM THE BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM A 1013 MB MIDDLE TEXAS COAST/UPPER TEXAS COAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...FINALLY TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ANOTHER PART OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME TEXAS LOW CENTER TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE MOVES FROM FLORIDA/GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 30N60W. THE FLOW BECOMES SPLIT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF 30N60W...WITH SOME OF IT GOING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...AND THE SOME OF IT GOING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF ANOTHER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH NEAR 13N33W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 12N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W AND JAMAICA...NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 80W...AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED INTO AND/OR ARE MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N55W 29N60W 26N70W 26N76W. CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 29N80W 27N70W 29N60W BEYOND 31N57W. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N57W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 33W/34W...HAVING MOVED EASTWARD ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE FROM YESTERDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N41W TO 26N39W TO 22N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N23W TO 23N23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. $$ MT