000 AXNT20 KNHC 191123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN THROUGH 4N15W 3N30W EQ48W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 5W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER MOISTURE EWD FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF WATERS N OF 26N...AROUND THE DOMINATING UPPER RIDGE. DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SFC...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER THE AREA. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0000 UTC AND CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE READINGS AT BUOY 42002 LED TO THE DECISION TO PUT A WEAK 1021 MB SFC LOW NEAR 24N95W. AS OF 0900 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE THEN E FROM THE LOW THROUGH 27N94W 28N86W...AND S OF THE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK COLD FRONT IS SWINGING THROUGH SE FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP THE FRONTS CONNECTED. HAVE OPTED TO FRACTURE THE ONCE CONTINUOUS FRONT BUT OVERALL WAS NOT THE CLEAREST SIGNAL EITHER WAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN STILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY W OF 87W. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RELAXED STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...EXCEPT OFF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST WHERE LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE WIND WAVES. HIGHEST WINDS/WAVES TO PERSIST NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 88W THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA MOVES E WHILE INTERACTING WITH LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR FORECAST DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGING AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP CONVECTION THEREBY REMAINS ABSENT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT THE SFC. THE SFC WIND MAXIMA REMAINS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AROUND 30 KT. TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BANK LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL AMERICAN TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC. RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N. 1012 MB SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE CAPE HATTERAS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N75W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST. FRONT WILL RACE QUICKLY E THROUGH THE WRN ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 50W. ASSOCIATED DYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N40W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N53W. FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION DUE TO THE 1014 MB SFC LOW NEAR 24N50W. RELATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. GFS INDICATES THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 1008 MB BY TONIGHT WHILE MOVING NE...THEN GET ABSORBED INTO THE POWERFUL...COMPLEX LOW SE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SUNDAY. PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 27N23W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS N OF 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. SFC PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS SW OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM SPAIN. WSW JET OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ WILLIS